The peak holiday shopping season is quickly approaching and, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, companies can expect some growth.
Overall, Deloitte’s team expects to see a 3.5 to 4.6 percent increase in 2023 holiday sales compared with the same period in 2022 to total $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion, noting that, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales between November 2022 and January 2023 grew 7.6 percent and totaled $1.49 trillion.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. “Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season.”
Moreover, Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader, notes that “retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high.”
Looking specifically at e-commerce holiday sales, Deloitte projects holiday sales will grow between 10.3 percent to 12.8 percent year-over-year, likely resulting in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $278 billion and $284 billion this season.
Notably, these projections are lower compared to predictions for retail sales to increase between 4 and 6 percent and growth of 12.8 to 14.3 percent in e-commerce holiday sales year-over-year made by Deloitte before the 2022 holiday season.
“This season e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” Handrinos said. “Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
This story was reported by WWD and originally appeared on WWD.com.
